Published at Noon on Thursday
The weather models are still advertising a decent storm coming in on Monday. Some of the models are showing some prefrontal precipitation as early as Sunday night.
The storm should make landfall late Sunday on the Central California coast. I would not be surprised to see the models slow this progression down over the next 24 to 48 hours of model runs.
Our best-case scenario would be for the storm to stay intact with most of the precipitation coming Monday night.
The GFS is an outlier model for its low precipitation amounts in the lower elevations. The other models are looking pretty good this time.
The Canadian model almost always overproduces precipitation in the lower elevations because of its low resolution and difficulty dealing with the local terrain.
The WPC (NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center) has a gridded forecast model of its own.
This is the statewide view
Here is the local view from a different model provider.
This high-resolution model above does a great job depicting terrain. You can see the difference from DRO to Durango Downtown. It also separates Pagosa from Wolf Creek. You also see Silverton with the slightly lower amounts in north-central San Juan County.
Next Update Friday, thanks for following!