Published at 5:30 am Sunday
The first set of winter highlights were just issued this morning for the Southwest San Juans and the Eastern San Juans (Wolf Creek). Don’t worry Northwest San Juans you too will see highlights issued because you will get some very dry, high ratio snow as the system starts to move out of the area very early on Tuesday morning.
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
324 AM MST SUN DEC 27 2020
COZ019-272200-
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.A.0012.201228T0300Z-201230T0600Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
324 AM MST SUN DEC 27 2020
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING…
* WHAT…MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW RATES POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. TOTAL SNOW OF 12 TO 24 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 550. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE.
* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BECOME VERY DIFFICULT AT TIMES.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON FINAL SNOW TOTALS AS WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM LIMITING SNOW RATIOS ON MONDAY.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
400 AM MST SUN DEC 27 2020
COZ067-068-271900-
/O.NEW.KPUB.WS.A.0013.201228T0600Z-201230T0600Z/
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW
10000 FEET-EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
400 AM MST SUN DEC 27 2020
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT…
* WHAT…MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND 12 TO 26 INCHES IN THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS (WOLF CREEK PASS), WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
* WHERE…UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE.
I have seen a bit of a boost in the precipitation output from most of the models over the last 24 hours. The only morning run that is out so far is NOAA’s WPC (Weather Prediction Center) 2.5km high-resolution model and it is very encouraging. This is a blended model, meaning it takes data from several other models and combines them to provide a forecast.
The overnight individual models were not quite as generous, but either way, it looks like I will be boosting my forecast totals, especially in areas at or above 7,200 feet. I will dig into the details in my afternoon Update. BTW for those who emailed me about travel, I will be following up with you this morning.
Thanks for following!