I had hoped the modeling would be clearer for our next precipitation event. That is not so much the case.
It still looks like snow will taper off considerably by late afternoon today in the areas where it is still snowing.
Snow will ramp back up between midnight and 5 am Sunday morning. There will be snow showers throughout the day and evening and in some areas throughout the day on Monday.
The models are showing slightly cooler temperatures leading to higher snow to liquid ratios between 5 am and noon. Wolf Creek and Purgatory should be close to 15 to 1. 13 to 1 in the mid-elevations and around 11 to 1 in the lower elevations. If you are new to the site, this just means that you get more snow out of less moisture.
Here are the precipitation maps. They vary quite a bit which leads to uncertainty in my forecast. This is for precipitation through Monday. If you don’t like to look at the maps scroll down to the end for my comments.
Euro
GFS
Canadian
NAM3km high-resolution
The models are trying to bring in heavy snow bands late Sunday from Cortez to Dolores and up to Rico. I am going to be cautious with my forecast in those areas. I will have plenty of time tomorrow morning to increase the totals in those areas if necessary.
This forecast is for early Sunday through Monday.
For Cortez, Durango Bayfield, Mancos, Ignacio, and Ridgway: 1-3 inches.
Mid-Elevation areas above 7,300 feet including Pagosa Springs, Ouray, and Dolores 2-5 inches.
Telluride, Silverton, Purgatory, Vallecito, and Mayday: 5-9 inches.
Wolf Creek 10-14 inches.
Thanks for the snow reports, I would love to hear some updated totals from Purg and Wolf Creek. Thanks for following and supporting the site!
Jeff, I am reporting 0.16 water with 1.5 inches snow from midnight to noon Saturday NW of Mancos . Appears to be over for now.
Eric J.
Hello Jeff, I finally got around to donating for this year. Thanks for all you do. And for being so smart. And funny. So, we are driving to Telluride tomorrow for our first out of town ski trip since last March. Yay, what great timing!! What time of day do you think we should avoid Lizard Head Pass?