Published at 8 am Sunday 1/24/21
Before I show the overnight model runs I should mention the storm system itself is still quite a ways off to our west. The models under forecasted the overnight totals. This is important in the “right for the wrong reason” category. This just means that what has already fallen should be included in the overall totals.
My first reaction this morning is to raise the totals I posted yesterday. I know I am going to be far too low in some areas because the biggest take away from the overnight models is that somebody is going to be under a band of heavy snow. The problem is the models can’t figure out where that is going to be. They always struggle with this, but this time you can almost hear them arguing with each other.
My other concern is going to be temperatures once again below 7,400 feet. We are going to see lulls and rain/snow mix from around 11 am to 5 pm especially below 7,000 feet.
Here are the overnight model runs, each with a slightly different idea of where the heavy snow bands will set up. Look for the various shades of blue and yellow, this indicates higher totals. These totals include what has fallen and what will fall through Monday before the next system comes into the area Monday night.
The GFS and German models are so similar I thought I posted one of them twice.
That is the end of the overnight models. The first-morning model runs are out and they too, have their own ideas about where heavy bands will set up. Of course, they disagree as well.
Nam 3km high-resolution model
The NAM shows the band going straight up the 24o corridor.
WPC 2.5km high-resolution
The WPC model shows the heavy bands just west of 550 in La Plata County,as well as throughout Montezuma and Dolores Counties.
I am increasing my lower elevation total 3 to 5 inches before melting. My new mid-elevation total is 4 to 8 inches, with higher amounts above 7,800 feet near Vallecito and Lemon. Purgatory, Mayday, and Wolf Creek should get 10 to 15 inches. These totals include what has already fallen.
Next Update around noon, thanks for the reports, and thanks for following and supporting the site!
2 thoughts on “Sunday Update #2 Overnight Model Runs”
We are 3 1/2 miles north of Mancos on Road 40, about 7200 feet. We received approx 4″ overnight and still snowing. Biggest storm we’ve had in our area.
Hey, letting you know we had about 5” yesterday and another 6 overnight! We’re just off 160W, halfway between the Lightner Creek road and Durango West on Cherry Gulch Rd