Here Comes Another Round!

Published Thursday at 2:20 pm

I am sorry I am a little late with this. I was surprised with how much the morning model runs increased their precipitation totals for the new storm. So I waited until the noon model run came out from the high-resolution model to see if it concurred with the morning run. It did!

It was an interesting morning with snow continuing around the noon hour at Purgatory and Wolf Creek. The airmass was so saturated this morning that it took very little energy to produce snow showers. Pre-frontal moisture should stream into the area as the day goes on. Heavier snow will develop in all areas by dark. The models have increased their precipitation totals on the morning runs.

Winter Weather Advisories go into effect at 3 pm this afternoon for the SW San Juans and Wolf Creek Pass.

COZ019-252100-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0022.210325T2100Z-210327T0000Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
248 AM MDT THU MAR 25 2021

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY…

* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
345 AM MDT THU MAR 25 2021

COZ068-251745-
/O.CON.KPUB.WW.Y.0018.210325T2100Z-210327T0000Z/
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
345 AM MDT THU MAR 25 2021

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY…

* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 15
INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.

* WHERE…EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.

* WHEN…FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. THE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Here are the latest model runs. I am going back to using the liquid precipitation totals. With what is being forecasted, I am looking forward to seeing the snowpack totals. They always lag a day, so it will be Saturday and Sunday before we can see how much progress we made.

The totals are through Saturday morning. Most models show the snow shutting down by Friday night, but you never know.

GFS

Canadian

NAM 3km high-resolution

Euro #1

Euro #2

I use multiple service providers for models. Some are slightly different. What I refer to as “Euro#2” is nice because, unlike most service providers, this one differentiates the town of Durango from the airport and it separates Wolf Creek pass from Pagosa.

The snow forecast for low and mid-elevations is difficult because of the temperatures and high sun angle this time of year. The Euro seems a little too ambitious in the lower and mid-elevations. If this run of the Euro is correct I will be too low on my forecast in those areas.

Cortez:  1 to 3 inches before melting

Durango, Mancos, Dolores, Bayfield, Ignacio, Ouray:  2 to 5 inches before melting, with the highest totals above 7,000 feet

Mid elevations below 7,800 feet:  4 to 6 inches

Mid elevations at or above 7,800 feet:  4 to 8 inches

Telluride, Silverton, and Rico:  4 to 8 inches

Purgatory:  8 to 12 inches

Wolf Creek:  10 to 14 inches

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One thought on “Here Comes Another Round!

  1. Frank Masiarz

    About six inches of fresh snow at intersection of CRs 228 and 502 ! 25 degrees at 7,750 feet; snow is still falling right now. Any more on the way today or tomorrow ?

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