Thursday Update

8/19 Thursday 10:45 am

The irony is so thick, you need a chainsaw to cut through it. The guy who arguably was most excited about this storm has the single lowest total to report. That would be me. My followers in Rafter J, Lake Durango, Shenandoah and Trappers Crossing can relate. Dolores and Cortez did well with over well over an inch so far. The Purgatory area did well so far. Pockets around Edgemont did pretty well so far.

Did you notice the”so far”? I say that because the front is still in Utah. The key takeaway from yesterday afternoon’s update was “the semi-stalled front is draped across Utah”. It did not move much at all.  NOAA has the cold front in eastern Utah. Wunderground shows a stationary front in central Utah.

NOAA

WU

Whichever map you prefer, the fact is the system is still a ways away. But based on what I am seeing on live satellite, I think WU has the location nailed.

If the models are to be believed, unsettled conditions should continue throughout the day. The actual front should pass very late this evening or in the overnight hours. Snow will be possible overnight. The snow level should range from 11,000 to 12,000 feet. The front may pass too far north to have any noticeable effect on the southern portions of the forecast area.

The overly optimistic models from yesterday are rather pessimistic this morning. The best chance of meaningful rain for southern portions of the forecast will occur if we have some afternoon convection. There is plenty of moisture to work with, we just need some heating. Heating will require some breaks in the clouds. If that is going to happen it will likely start after the noon hour. We’ll see.

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