Tuesday 9/7 9:35 am
We are stuck in a boring weather pattern regionally. I have not posted in several days. When that happens I get a little “itchy”. I want to post something, and I know a handful of followers would like to read something from me. So I need to look for content. I will stick to the weather but first, I want to encourage readers to use the blue link that they normally use for weather reports to send me fall foliage updates. If you stumble across an area that is starting to change colors or is progressing nicely towards the peak, let me know. I will not only share it with the readers but I will use it personally. I have enjoyed photography since I was a kid. I decided right before the pandemic hit to pursue the hobby more aggressively. I never really got going, but have decided to jump back in this fall.
We are currently stuck under a dome of high pressure. This is pretty common during the fall months. This is a particularly stubborn ridge. Usually, when this happens in the fall, you have big swings with cool temperatures at night and above-average temperatures during the day. This had been the case until last night. The haze limited the overnight cooling.
Here is a quick look at the air quality index (AQI).
When you see that anomalously high reading in Durango, don’t worry, it is only the Train.
Again, readings under a hundred are not going to affect you. Reading above 100 can affect sensitive groups of people with respiratory problems. Above 150 will affect just about everyone, but usually only after 24 hours or so of continual exposure.
So I mentioned above-average temperatures, here is what that looks like from the GFS and European ensemble (multi) model forecast. These are the high-temperature anomalies for the next week that show how high above average these models are forecasting.
As I said, this is averaged over a seven-day period. Some days may be warmer, some days may be cooler than this.
I briefly mentioned the “Ensemble” models earlier. Ensemble refers to the family of individual models that get lumped together to create the forecast. I like using them to look for pattern changes. The forecast becomes the mean of all of those model runs. The Euro has 51 members, the GFS has 21 members.
When I am tracking an active storm I look at the ensembles, but I give a lot more weight to the daily runs of the individual model. These are called deterministic runs. They are a single version of the model, not the mean of the ensemble.
With no storm or no sign of any storm available to track, I defer to the ensemble models. The ensembles show no meaningful precipitation for the next several days. Precipitation does not even enter the forecast until Sunday, and that is not for everyone. Here is a regional view of the ensembles beginning Saturday, September 11th, through midnight September 23rd for the GFS and 6 pm September 22nd for the Euro. This shows precipitation occurring over a 6 hour period. The darkness of the shading correlates to the amount of precipitation. The darker the shade, the heavier the precipitation. The heaviest shades would be in green and blue, which does not happen very often here.
One thing that you may have noticed is that the frequency of precipitation picks up towards the end of the model cycle. That is how I like to look for pattern changes.
There is not a lot of tropical development to talk about in the short term, I have my eyes on a couple of things and will share that in the coming days.
The Euro weeklies came out last night. They are starting to show a little more color (snowfall) on the map. The weeklies are also based on the ensembles’ mean runs. Here is the total snowfall (before melting) through Thursday, October 21st.
My next post will likely be Friday but maybe sooner if I see something I want to share. Thanks in advance for the heads up on the fall colors, and thanks for following and supporting the site!
Click here to donate
Click here to submit a weather report or question