Countdown To Cold

10/10 Sunday 6:40 am

Not a lot to talk about this morning. Temps are cooler, hovering in the mid to upper 20s to the low to mid-30s across the forecast area. That will seem downright balmy by Wednesday morning. The cold and snow are on their way. As has been seen on the models’ precipitation maps, this is not going to be an extremely wet system. But as we saw Saturday morning, there are always surprises. The models rarely pick up on surprises. The biggest surprise will be if we don’t see surprises.

This storm will be impactful especially in the higher elevations. We will at least see our first WWA (winter weather advisory) for the high country. Whenever we talk about snow in the lower and mid-elevations and temperatures near 20 degrees in October it is a big deal. I say bring it on, lets get this winter started!

Very little has changed on the models. I still won’t rule out a slowdown. I would like to see that. It would indicate a deeper system that is going through some strengthening. If it does not happen, we should see snow start to fly in advance of the system late Monday night in the higher elevations. This is due to a favorable jet location.  As it stands right now, snow will be falling by 6 am Tuesday down to 8,000 feet. The snow level should drop to between 7,000 and 6,500 feet by noon.

Here are the latest precipitation maps.

Canadian liquid

Canadian snow

GFS liquid

GFS snow

German liquid

I don’t post the German snow totals because it struggles with SWE ratios.

Euro liquid

Euro snow

WPC liquid

I also don’t post the snow totals from the WPC. They use a probabilistic forecast scheme that is difficult to understand.

My next update will be Monday morning (unless I see something crazy in the later day model runs). Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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