10/17 Sunday 7 am
Overnight, the models continued the trend of dropping the storm track a little further south. This increases my confidence that northern portions of the forecast area are going to get a couple of inches of snow late Monday into Tuesday. Not a big deal, but fun for fall. For everyone else, just a dusting or few drops if anything at all Monday night into Tuesday.
The other thing that I am getting confident about is a very small nuisance system that will rotate out of the main low to the west around or after 3 am Monday morning. If this happens, it will affect mainly the southern and central portions of the forecast area. If you are going to be driving in those areas early tomorrow morning you could run into some wet to slick conditions, with an inch or so of snow near the top of Wolf Creek Pass and Coal Bank Pass.
This reminds me, I have picked up a lot of followers in the last 10 days who may not know what the forecast area is. From south to north it extends from Aztec, New Mexico to Ridgway, Colorado. It includes Telluride, but not Lake City. From west to east it extends from Cortez, Colorado to Wolf Creek Ski Resort. I don’t choose these areas because they are my favorites. I chose them because I am more familiar with how our weather interacts with the topography.
Southern portions of the forecast area include everything south of Cortez, Mancos, Durango, Hermosa Bayfield, Trew Creek, Pagosa Springs, Wolf Creek.
Central portions of the forecast area include everything north of Dolores, Rico, Glacier Club, Lemon, and Vallecito. It extends north to Molas Pass.
Northern portions of the forecast area include Silverton, Telluride, Dove Creek, Ouray, and Ridgway.
Here are the maps in motion. Notice right out of the chute the Canadian and Euro pick up on that small disturbance early Monday morning. The models may be overdoing the effects west of Archuleta County. We’ll see.
GFS-nothing Monday morning
Here are the totals
Canadian-this looks reasonable.
Euro-this does not make a lot of sense.
GFS-If I could overlay the GFS on top of the Euro it would look the best of all of the models.
German-This looks interesting as well.
I still have my eye on the last 7 days of the month as a time period of interest. The GFS is starting to come around. Of course, now the Euro is backing off a bit. It will be a long roller coaster ride for the next several days. I will be focusing on it all week.
Two updates on Monday, the first will be out by 9 am. The second will be out by 4 pm. Thanks for following and supporting the site!