10/18 Monday 9 am
For numerous reasons, I have low confidence in this forecast. The models had all come together showing a wave associated with the low-pressure system rotating into the southern forecast area this morning. That has not happened yet. The short-term high-resolution NAM 3km model that just came out is showing that happening now. I see no signs of it on radar, webcams, or the latest surface maps.
The cold front and closed low-pressure are currently over central Nevada this morning. Snow and rain showers are breaking out in advance of the front and behind, all of the way back to the eastern side of the Sierra.
The front and low will continue east through Utah today and reach Colorado late tonight. Only the southern tail of the system will be available to affect our weather. This northerly storm track is more common than not this time of year.
The models have never portrayed this as a big weather maker for us. At best, some of the higher elevation areas generally above 9,000 may get a couple of inches of snow. Telluride and Red Mountain stand the best chances of seeing this snow. To put this system in perspective, it looks like a lower producer than the last one.
The models are in worse agreement today than they were yesterday. I don’t know how much time I want to devote to this system. My focus will shift towards what looks like a pattern change in the next 7 to 10 days. I will talk more about that this afternoon.
My next update should be out around 2 pm today. Thanks for following and supporting the site!