Late Afternoon Post On Second Storm-GFS Goes Bigger!

12/6/21 Monday 4 pm

Three posts in a day is not normal. However, it looks like I will be doing that for at least the next four days. If this is the first post of mine you have read today, I would suggest you go back and read my earlier posts for context.

There were a couple of things that stood out in the NWS Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) when discussing the Thursday/Friday storm this afternoon. “A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS FOR AT LEAST THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE OUR MOST LIKELY FORECAST IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW AT THIS TIME.”

They usually wait until one storm has passed before issuing highlights on the next one. Therefore, we probably won’t see anything issued until tomorrow. They also discussed the potential for below-zero low temperatures over the weekend.

I have not talked about next week but the GFS, with its longer run times of 16 days, has already been showing the potential for more snow from mid-next week into the weekend. That is pretty far out to talk about but here is what they said about that. “THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE MOUNTAINS TO RECEIVE MORE SNOW, AND THE VALLEYS RAIN OR SNOW.”

Usually, when they are talking about the Valleys, they are referring to the Grand Junction area.

The afternoon GFS just came out and looks great.  Here are the liquid-equivalent precipitation totals for the second storm on its latest run. They are higher than the last run!

My next post will be Tuesday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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