12/6/21 Monday 1:oopm
No update on the first storm. I am fine with my forecast from this morning.
The latest runs from the operational models of the Euro, Canadian, and GFS are going crazy with precipitation for the second storm! Plus, they are showing mostly snow during the storm at all elevations.
As I write this it is 11:15 am. The temperature in Durango downtown is 44 degrees. Those three models are showing lows on Saturday morning that are 45 to 55 degrees colder than that. The warmest is the Euro showing -4 in Durango. The coldest is the Canadian showing -15 in Durango.
As far as precipitation goes, they are showing nearly a perfect setup. Abundant moisture, perfect storm track, and a favorable jet for enhanced precipitation rates. Could it change? Of course. But I can tell you that it will be catching the eyes of the NWS forecasters. It is a bit unusual for the three operational models to come together at this juncture with agreement on such large totals.
I will try to be cautiously optimistic over the coming days. But, if we still see these types of totals and conditions out of the models for the next 24 to 36 hours, the NWS will need to issue at least a Special Weather Statement.
Very light snow will start falling late on Wednesday as little pieces of the storm drift over the area before the main weather maker starts really impacting the area. Light showers will continue on and off on Thursday. At the moment the GFS and Euro are showing conditions deteriorating late Thursday afternoon or early evening. The Canadian is slower depicting the heavier precipitation showing up around or after midnight.
If these models verify, the heaviest snow would fall overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Travel may be impossible in most areas early Friday until things get cleaned up.
The Euro is the most enthusiastic model of the three. Here are the maps in motion in 6-hour increments starting Wednesday afternoon and ending Saturday morning.
Here are the Euros totals for the second storm only. I am going to post these totals as liquid equivalent. If these models are right about the rapidly dropping temps overnight Thursday and throughout the day on Friday we could have some incredible snow to liquid ratios. It is too early to tell if that will happen.
Euro liquid equivalent
As I have said in the past I have a few different data sources I use. They all offer me some different parameters. It is difficult to separate totals out between the two storms. The run above would be good to look at for the northern portions of the forecast area. For everyone else, since we are basically not going to get much out of the first storm, I would suggest using the run below from my different data provider. They split out downtown Durango from the airport as well as Pagosa from Wolf Creek Pass.
Unfortunately, that provider does not have the same delineations for the GFS and Canadian. Nonetheless, the GFS is looking very juicy for that second storm.
The Canadian is the most conservative. That almost never happens. Sometimes it takes a little longer to catch on to the other operation models. We’ll see. It still looks good though!
With the German model, I have no way to separate out the totals. So these are the combined totals. With the first storm being so small it really doesn’t matter that the model is combining the two.
I may post later this afternoon if I read something interesting from the NWS. Otherwise, my next post will be Tuesday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!