12/8/21 Wednesday 4:30 am
The latest model runs are very aligned with each other and consistent to themselves on a run-to-run basis. A big storm is on the way.
The Euro has once again slightly slowed down the onset of heavy precipitation until after 5 pm Thursday in the lower elevations. I am not ruling out a further slowing before the system arrives. This is good news.
All three models are also showing colder air with the system. This trend might also continue. We’ll see. For residents of the Durango area, this could be crucial. As it stands right now there could be a big difference in snow, for example, between Walmart and City Market south. And Skyridge versus downtown Durango.
I will be trying to figure that out throughout the day Thursday. If you are in the mid-and lower elevations, don’t be concerned that nothing is happening during the day Thursday, that is a good sign. We want this thing to take its time.
If you are in mountain locations above 8,800 feet, expect on and off snow showers this afternoon, evening, and throughout the night. 1 to 4 inches of snow may accumulate, not that big of a deal. Slightly heavier, more consistent snow will build in throughout the afternoon Thursday and fall over those (mountain) locations.
Here are the latest liquid-equivalent precipitation maps. They include anything that falls between now and the end of the storm.
No changes yet to the Winter Storm Watch. The NWS mentioned timing fluctuations across the south. They are likely referring to what I mentioned earlier regarding the cooler air and slower onset of the heaviest precipitation. They also said that the total amounts of snow they were referencing may be too conservative and to stay tuned. I could not agree more.
My next update should be around noon, Thanks for following and supporting the site!