Wednesday 12/8/21 12:30 pm
Light snow and or flurries have broken out across the forecast area. A small disturbance to our northwest and abundant moisture from the west-southwest are responsible for this. This was expected. What was not expected is that this would be occurring in as many places as it is.
This moisture should dry up a bit by morning and then a more significant direct tap of moisture will flow into the area throughout the day on Thursday. More on that in the map section of this update.
No news yet from the NWS, I expect we will some news later this afternoon. I will be updating again after that.
I am sticking with my 1 to 4-inch forecast across the higher elevations by Thursday morning. There may be some slightly higher totals for Wolf Creek and Telluride.
The models are still showing some slight inconsistencies in timing and temps. This will have to be watched closely. That being said it is snowing and 35 degrees at my house as I type this at 11:45 am. Heavy snow can lower snow levels and actually cool the air leading to more snow accumulating. That could happen in the late afternoon/early evening hours in the lower elevation areas.
I mentioned the abundant moisture earlier. Putting the maps in motion starting at 5 pm this evening you will see the moisture slowly erode by tomorrow morning down to (only) 160% of the average for this time of year. Then, throughout the day the available moisture surges in. By Thursday afternoon the available moisture (PWAT) reaches up to between 300-350% of the average for this time of the year. That stays in place until very early Friday morning. It returns to “normal” by 8 am Friday. The purple and dark purples represent those values.
Here are the latest models runs. These are the forecasts for total liquid-equivalent precipitation in inches.
Euro
German
GFS
Canadian
My next update will be out this afternoon after the NWS discussion is released. Hopefully around 4:00 pm. Thanks for following and supporting the site!
Pretty good snowfall at N end of Vallecito!