12/8/21 Wednesday 3:15 pm

NWS did not change its thoughts on the higher elevations. They are still calling for 1 to 2 feet of snow, that is a safe forecast.  They also said they were concerned with the southern valleys so, for now, they issued a winter storm watch. I think their 3-6 inch totals are safe for Cortez and Mancos. I think more is possible for Durango, Bayfield, and Pagosa. I will be working through that tomorrow.

This leaves the mid-elevations above 7,300 feet a bit in limbo. I am expecting more on the order of 8-15 inches in those areas. Again, I have a little under 24 hours to figure that out, but I just wanted to give you a heads up.

Pueblo NWS upgraded their winter storm watch to a winter storm warning. But, they downgraded the amounts at Wolf Creek to 12 to 24 inches. That is a mistake. I am pretty confident they will get  28 to 36 inches.

The afternoon model runs that are out have no surprises in them. I will post the latest runs in my early update tomorrow.

FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN- CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, AND PAGOSA SPRINGS
1216 PM MST WED DEC 8 2021

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING…

* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6  INCHES POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.

* WHERE.. FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER, ANIMAS RIVER BASIN AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.

* WHEN…FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS…PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

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