12/9/21 Thursday 3:15 pm

The early afternoon snow above 8,700 feet is exceeding my expectations so far. As of 3 pm, the all snow level has dropped to just below 7,500 feet.

First of all, it looks like NWS Pueblo woke up, or somebody got in their ear. Here is their latest Winter Storm Warning for Wolf Creek.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1106 AM MST THU DEC 9 2021

EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
1106 AM MST THU DEC 9 2021

..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY

* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 55 MPH.

* WHERE…EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET AND EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE.
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. HIGHWAYS OVER WOLF CREEK, CUMBRES, AND MONARCH PASSES WILL BE SNOW-PACKED AND ICY FROM MID-MORNING TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 30 BELOW ZERO COULD CAUSE FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES.

NWS Grand Junction may regret this:

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1237 PM MST Thu Dec 9 2021

COZ007-008-022-023-101500-
/O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0005.211210T0100Z-211210T1900Z/
/O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0033.211210T0400Z-211210T1700Z/

Animas River Basin-San Juan River Basin-

Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, and Pagosa Springs
1237 PM MST Thu Dec 9 2021

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST FRIDAY…

* WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.
Southern valleys can expect locally higher amounts in the San
Juan foothills. Winds gusting as high as 25 to 35 mph at times.

* WHERE..Animas River Basin and San Juan River Basin.

* WHEN…From 9 PM this evening to 10 AM MST Friday.

* IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the

To that, I say whatever…we will see tomorrow morning.

My snow forecasts are going to be higher than what you are seeing out there. If I am wrong I will take it and learn from it. One of the things I have been looking at all afternoon is current temperatures versus the NWS gridded hourly temperatures for different locations. On average the temperatures are verifying 3 degrees cooler than what was forecasted. Some were 5 degrees cooler than forecast.

For example, the 1 pm temperature at Durango airport was 37 degrees. The forecast for 1 pm was 41 degrees. That is a huge difference in a winter storm. This has been the case at every location I have checked, with the exception of Cortez. This should mean we will see rain change to snow earlier than is being predicted in the lower elevations, which will result in more snow.

1 to 3 inches:  Cortez, Marvel, southern portions of La Posta

3 to 5 inches:  Bodo, Ignacio, and Oxford areas.  Escalante area and northern portions of La Posta

4 to 8 inches:  Mancos in town

5 to 9 inches:  Durango in town, Bayfield in town

6 to 10 inches: Hermosa area, Deer Valley, Trappers Crossing, Long Hollow Ranch@141

8 to 12 inches: Durango West 1&2, Rafter J, Lake Durango, Falls Creek South, Glacier/Tamarron, Forest Lakes at or below 7,500, Ouray Pagosa Springs

10 to 14 inches: Upper Forest Lakes, Durango Ridge Ranch, Hesperus Ski Area, Falls Creek North, Vallecito– higher amounts on the north end are possible.

15 to 20inches:  Mayday, Purgatory, Telluride Ski Area (lesser amounts in town)

28 to 36inches:  Wolf Creek Pass

BTW I finished writing the snow forecast potion of this update at 2:45 pm. I am waiting for the latest info from the NWS.  I have been keeping an eye on the radar on the 9 news weather app and the Wunderground app. As I finished the forecast portion of the update I noticed they changed the forecast at my house to 8 to 12 inches. That just happens to be what I came up with. They had 3 to 5 inches last time I looked, it had no influence on my forecast. Most people know I don’t use weather apps for anything except radar.

I will be up throughout the night but probably won’t post another update before 4 am. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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