12/30/21 Thursday 12:35 pm
The latest model runs are trending lower with the precipitation forecasts. On the one hand, this would stand to reason given the fact that anywhere from an inch to 11 inches of more snow has fallen since yesterday morning.
On the other hand, even if I subtract those amounts from those particular areas, it is clear that it is not the only factor involved. The models are trending lower. It appears the biggest change between today and yesterday is the placement and strength of the jet above us.
This has left me in a predicament. Do I bet that these are anomalous runs and go for the higher totals I had been seeing for the last couple of days? Or, do I take them as they are now and adjust later if necessary.
I think the only way to proceed is to forecast off of the models with the declining totals and assume that things are not coming together as well as hoped. I have mentioned a couple of times that this storm merger setup can be a good storm if things are not perfect and a perfect storm if things come together 100%.
Don’t worry, even using the lower trending models I still am expecting double-digit totals at Telluride and Purgatory, and 28 to 36 inches at Wolf Creek. The lower elevations will take the biggest hit.
Here are the latest model runs from this morning showing the total precipitation through late Saturday. I will start with the more encouraging runs and work my way down the ladder.
NDFD blended model
My snow forecasts will be out later this afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the site!