Monday Afternoon Model Update

2/21/22 Monday 12:30 pm

Light snow is starting to fall in the higher elevations. Snow will build in across the forecast area this afternoon reaching the lower elevations by early evening at the latest.

The National Weather Service decided to extend the Winter Storm Warnings for Purgatory, Silverton, Rico, and Telluride through Thursday instead of ending the first warning at 2 pm tomorrow and issuing a new warning for Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. They left the existing Winter Weather Advisory up for the lower elevations but posted a Winter Storm Watch for those areas beginning Tuesday afternoon. No change from Pueblo NWS, the Winter Storm Warning for Wolf Creek begins at 5 pm and lasts through Thursday at 11 am. It is a bit confusing but the bottom line is a lot of snow is headed our way!

The reason the NWS in Grand Junction changed the warnings and added the watch is because they no longer think there will be much of a lull on Tuesday between systems. I think that was a better way to play this but I do expect a bit of a slow down in the rate of snowfall on Tuesday from around 10 am to 2 pm. It will be more pronounced across the lower elevations.

Here are the latest model runs. They have been very consistent for days now and I am very confident with what I am seeing.  I have been working on the forecasts all day and hope to have them out around 4 or 5 pm.

I have determined the minimum snow to liquid ratios for most areas. The lower elevations will range from 10/11 to 1 throughout the event. That is 10/11 inches of snow per inch of liquid. Mid elevations up to 7,500 feet should average at least a 12 to 1 ratio. Mid elevations up to 8,200 feet should average a minimum of a 13 to 1 ratio. Telluride should average 13 to 1 as well. Purgatory will do a little better with this setup and should average 14 to 1. Wolf Creek will average a minimum of 15 to 1 ratio.

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