3/8/22 Tuesday 7:1o am
Another complicated double-barreled storm is set to move into the state tonight and spread south, with snow breaking out between 6 am to 10 am from Ouray and Red Mountain over to Telluride.
Snow will move south during the day eventually reaching the lower elevations by Wednesday late afternoon or evening. The next piece of the split system will be developing in Utah. This is where the models get confused. As I always say, the storm track is everything and the models disagree on what track the system will take.
The Euro and German model favor a solution that would bring a little more snow to the lower and mid-elevations. The GFS and Canadian show the second piece going south of the forecast area.
In advance of the system’s arrival, the NWS issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the higher elevations.
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RIDGWAY, GLADE PARK, TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
326 AM MST TUE MAR 8 2022
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM MST THURSDAY…
* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
* WHERE…UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE, NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM MST THURSDAY.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ON RIDGE TOPS.
Since the models are not aligned on the storm track I am initially relying on the NOAA blended models. Here are liquid-equivalent forecast totals through Friday. Right now it appears these systems will be efficient snow producers. Snow to liquid ratios could be relatively high for this time of year.
I am looking forward to seeing everyone’s event totals from the first storm cycle, I will post those later today. Thanks for following and supporting the site!