5/29/22 Sunday 9:30 am

I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday weekend. According to the models we are in for a bit of a change, beginning this afternoon. The first system is currently stalled south of Montrose. This has been the case many times this year. The trailing cold front stretches from Salt Lake to Jackson, Wyoming.

The cold front should push the first system through the San Juans this afternoon. Reaching the southern portions of the forecast area late today/tonight. There is some instability associated with this system. The morning run of the NAM 3km high-resolution model shows snow and rain showers breaking out, first in the northern San Juans and then moving south during the afternoon. Snow levels will start out above 11,000 feet but will drop below 9,000 feet overnight.

Here is that model put into motion from noon today to 6 am tomorrow.

Here are the forecasted liquid precipitation totals

As far as the lower and mid-elevation totals go, I am taking a “believe it when I see it approach”.

Here are the snow totals

The model is favoring the Red Mountain and Camp Bird areas, as well as the eastern side of Wolf Creek Pass. Temperatures tomorrow morning will be borderline for freezing temperatures, especially in the mid and high elevation areas. Models are showing 35 at DRO tomorrow morning. If you have concerns, take precautions.

I mentioned the potential for instability earlier. This is my first CAPE forecast of the season. For those of you who are new, CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. It is just an indicator of the amount of fuel is available for thunderstorm development. Anytime we see readings above 400 there is a good chance for thunderstorms.

Here are the forecasted CAPE values between 10 am today and 6 am tomorrow.

As you can see, readings peak between 500 to 1000+ well into tonight. If thunderstorms develop there is not a lot of moisture to work with. Dry thunderstorms are not fun with such dry conditions. A Wind Advisory is in place beginning at noon today. Hopefully, all of our visitors will respect the dry conditions and high fire danger.

My next update will be on Monday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!