7/3/22 Sunday 8:10 am

I am feeling better, but I am not 100%  I still have not worked out, maybe tomorrow. There are a lot of unexpected cobwebs with this crap. I am going to leave it at that.

I am going to do my best to jump right back into the current and future weather. I had plans for a June recap, but rather than focus my energy on what happened I am going to try to focus on what’s next. Late Monday/Tuesday morning the new long-term Euro will be out so I can get a good look into mid-August to see what is in store for us. Both the Euro 46 day and the Euro seasonal were instrumental in my early prediction of an above-average monsoon season months ago.

At least at my house, the rain overnight and this morning were very tranquil. It is sleeping rain in my book. The cool temps and humidity were quite refreshing. Most of the models show the showers continuing scattered at times throughout the day.

Here are the latest runs showing the totals for the next 24 hours (ending Monday 6 am).

GFS

Euro

Canadian

German

Pretty good consistency overall, the German has a bit loftier expectations. Given the precipitable water values (PWAT) now and throughout the day, I would not be dismissing higher totals than what is currently being forecasted.

Remember, PWAT is the amount of precipitation available to fall in a virtual column if it fell all at once. In a nutshell, look at the atmosphere like a sponge, and you wrang all of the moisture out of the sponge here is how much rain would be available to fall.

Here is the PWAT forecast through Monday at 6 am.

These values represent 170% to 200+% of the climatological average for today.

On Monday, showers should be more isolated in nature. Tuesday it looks like we will return to more widespread showers. I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself right now, but some models are suggesting that we will be transitioning into a slightly drier pattern by late next week. I know there are some folks who really hope this will happen. No promises, but I am keeping my eye on it.

The radar is back as I am sure many of you noticed. There were no upgrades that would benefit our area. I was emailing back and forth with a contact at NWS Grand Junction a while back. They are looking forward to our new radar as much as we are. To answer your question, I do not have any information as to the latest projected date it will be up and running, but I will email and get an update and let everyone know this week.

Thanks for all of the nice emails over the last week, and as always, thanks for following and supporting the site!