Moist Flow Returns

7/5/22 Tuesday 7:45 am
But will it rain? Models are very mixed when it comes to precipitation reaching the ground. For example, check out the Euro versus the GFS. These are 48-hour forecast totals.
The Canadian looks similar to the GFS, and the German looks similar to the Euro. PWAT (precipitable water values) are starting off today at 170% of climo (climatological average). These values will be approaching 200% of average as the day wears on. Therefore, I would say scattered to widespread showers seem like a good bet throughout most of the forecast area today. Scattered to isolated showers could very well develop again on Wednesday before warm dry air starts to take over the region late this week into the weekend. More on that tomorrow and Thursday.
The Euro extended model came out last night and it shows the above-average precipitation continuing across the forecast area this summer. It does show the dry air taking over by the weekend but the favorable flow will return sometime next week and we will go right back into the wet pattern.
Here are the positive precipitation anomalies for the next 30 days through August 4th. The amounts shown are not totals, they are the amounts above (or below) average for the period.
Here are the anomalies through August 11th, indicating a wet start to August for the southern portions of the forecast area.
My next update will be Wednesday afternoon and I will talk more about the drier weather that is on the way.
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