7/22/22 Friday 7:15 am

Models continue to support the idea of a major pattern change returning widely scattered showers and cooler temperatures (day and night) next week.

Isolated to scattered showers developed yesterday throughout the forecast area. I expect the same thing to happen today and tomorrow. These storms are mostly convective-based and are hit or miss pop-up afternoon storms.

Late on Sunday, the monsoonal flow will return and the models show that showers will become widespread. The models show this pattern continuing through at least Friday. The models are in excellent agreement with the pattern change. The weekly and 10-day totals are impressive.

Euro forecast totals through Sunday afternoon July 31st

GFS forecast totals through Sunday night July 31st

Canadian forecast totals through Sunday afternoon July 31st

German forecast totals through Friday morning July 29th (max run duration of the German model is 180 hours)

NOAA National blend of models (NBM) through Sunday evening July 31st

I will be posting updates at least daily through the weekend and next week. I also will be covering the forecast for the Telluride 100 Mountain Bike Race. It is just a little too early to start on that.

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