I apologize, I never hit the “Publish” button when I finished this yesterday. Most of what the models were predicting yesterday did not come to fruition despite the deep moisture in place. My new update will be out this afternoon
7/29/22 Friday 1:30 pm
Stratiform showers (gentle rain) developed almost immediately after I posted my morning update. They formed mostly over the southern portions of the forecast area. They are slowly moving into the southern portions of Archuleta County as of 12 pm.
Dewpoints are very high. Readings of 60 plus are out there with most areas in the mid to high 50s. This is very high for us. Convection has begun firing in NE Arizona. There is nothing to stop that from happening here, but clouds tend to delay the onset of storms. Storms this afternoon and evening are a good bet but it will be difficult to pinpoint where this will happen.
When it comes to convection, areas with saturated soils tend to be favored. More than likely the areas that were favored yesterday, will be the areas where we see the biggest storms set up today. That being said, keep an umbrella handy because the entire forecast area is ripe for storms to fire this afternoon and evening.
After I posted I received several 1 to 3-inch reports coming in for the 24-hour period. Thanks for those and keep them coming.
As I mentioned a few times this week it appears late morning to afternoon showers are possible for the event. I am going to put the Euro in motion hourly from 6 am to 6 pm. I don’t have a way to zoom in on the GIF. It is difficult to see so here is a static map that you can reference first so the non-map readers know where to look. This is SW Colorado. Circled in red is the approximate area that the course is in.
Each frame is 1 hour. Most models are only showing 0.25 to 0.50 inches across the course over the 12-hour period. The CAPE values do not become highly elevated until 3 pm. So assuming the models are correct, all of this is good motivation to finish early!
My next update will be on Saturday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!