Tuesday Update-Short Mid And Long Term Outlook

8/2/22 Tuesday 6 am
Yesterday a few thunderstorms developed throughout the forecast area. One was severe, it was located east northeast of Durango, flash flood watches were issued. The highest total I have seen so far was 0.75 inches. It would not surprise me to see a higher total surface as the day wears on.
Today, “drier” air is supposed to work its way north into the forecast area. For what it’s worth, PWATs (precipitable water values) will remain above 100% of the climatological average. There is still residual moisture around and the soil is still saturated. If we do see more sun and daytime heating we will have more of a possibility of convection developing. CAPE values are forecasted to be very high this afternoon, I can’t promise an uneventful completely dry day. PWAT is already forecasted to be higher tomorrow before rising significantly on Thursday. Late Thursday through the weekend still looks wet.
Speaking of wet, the Euro extend data is out, as I expected it shows a very wet August. Here are total precipitation forecasts for August.
Here is the positive precipitation anomaly through August
Here are the totals through September 15th.
Here is the positive anomaly through September 15th.
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