8/29/22 Monday 8:15 am

Most of the forecast area has been complying with the drier solutions the models have been suggesting. However, there have been significant exceptions.  Highly isolated Meso-Scale Convective Storms developed around the Hermosa area in the last couple of afternoons. They delivered heavy rain and hail as they sat nearly motionless over the area. Some of those locations have added 2 to 3 inches of rain to their August totals.

As I have said before these convective features are unforecastable with even our highest resolution models. The best guidance I can give is they are possible any afternoon this time of year. The best chances for these storms to develop will be over the areas that have gotten heavy rain recently. The storm development relies on residual moisture and saturated soils to fuel the convection.

Our lack of good radar coverage makes it impossible to determine when the precipitation is hitting the ground. I appreciate all of the reports over the last couple of days from everyone.

Tomorrow I will be covering the latest long-term Euro run due out tonight. Thanks for following and supporting the site!