Spotty Showers

9/7/22 Wednesday 8 am
Yesterday a few isolated convective (nonsoonal) showers developed across mainly the southern and central portions of the forecast area. The highest totals I could find were in my own neighborhood. Durango West 2 picked up 0.45 inches of rain. Graupel mixed in with a couple of heavy downpours. It did not last very long.
Although the monsoon is over, these afternoon convective (nonsoonal) showers are common in September. They are very difficult to predict when and where they will occur.
A couple of things may affect our weather this weekend. Hurricane Kay, about 200 miles south of the tip of Baja, will continue to move north and start weakening. Models are divided on what path it will take as that happens. Some of the remnants may get caught up in the flow and make it into our area. There are also models that show the storm weakening and turning sharply to the west and back out to sea. It is a coin flip at this point. Even if some of the remnants make it here, I do not expect high precipitation totals.
The other factor that could affect our weather is a cold front that should drape across the Front Range bringing cooler weather east of the divide and if we’re lucky drop temperatures west of the divide late weekend into next week. Seasonal temperatures would feel pretty good after the warm weather we have been having.
No promises on either the wetter weather or the cooler temperatures just yet. We will have to see how it pans out.
I will be tracking both of these features and I will put something out as soon as the models get a better handle on them. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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