Extended Outlook

9/16/22 Friday 8:45 am
Before I get into the long term, I need to address next week. I posted the precipitation maps yesterday showing anomalous rainfall for the entire forecast area. I mentioned that I was hesitant to do so, but there was widespread model agreement for the event. I also said there is a lot of time before Tuesday and models tend to change before locking into a decision. I was right about that. Check out the flip-flops with the Euro over the last 24 hours.
Here was the run I posted yesterday
Here is the next run
That would be the equivalent of a 70-inch snowstorm in the winter over 4 days…but wait, here is the latest Euro run.
Still impressive but quite a change. The other models had similar flips, the Canadian moved the heavy precipitation hundreds of miles away. The ensemble (multi-member models) have been pretty consistent showing an anomalous event, but they are closer to the above run than the record-setting run from yesterday.
The Euro weekly extended run comes out very late on Mondays and Thursdays. I was in the habit of posting the precipitation anomalies on Tuesdays. I have not done that in a while so wanted to update everyone on the latest run from late last night.
Obviously, a significant event is factored into the totals because the model is now showing a significant anomaly in the long term.
Here is the positive anomaly through 10/16
Through 10/30
Snow through 10/16
Snow through 10/30
I love seeing those colors again. To put this in perspective, here are the average snowfalls for October: Durango 1.1″, Telluride (Trout Lake is the nearest reporting site) 11.1″, Silverton 8.3″, Pagosa 4″.
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