9/17/22 Saturday 6:30 am

The models are mostly aligned towards a widespread precipitation event throughout the forecast area beginning Tuesday. I say mostly because the Canadian has not been back on board for the last 48 or so hours. The ensemble family (multi-model) runs look encouraging.

The models are doing their best to juggle an unseasonably deep trough off of the California Coast, a dying Tropical Cyclone off of Baja, and high pressure to our east. This is why I am relying on ensemble and blended model guidance versus the “regular” model runs.

Here is what they are showing in their latest runs. For the majority of the forecast area, anything over 0.50 or so inches would be considered anomalously high for the week.

Euro Ensemble

GFS Ensemble

NOAA’s National Blend of Models (NBM)

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center model (WPC)

NOAA/WPC publishes an Excessive Rainfall Outlook every day, it is very very unusual for them to put in anything longer than 3 days out in the future but they are already highlighting the forecast area for days 4 and 5 (Tuesday and Wednesday).

Tuesday

Wednesday

My next update will be on Sunday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!