9/27/22 Tuesday 4 pm mt

There is still a lot of uncertainty on where the worst winds and rain will occur with Hurricane Ian. The European model has shifted the worst condition south to the Sarasota area.

Most recent European storm track

Here are the peak wind gusts with that track

That 128 mph peak gust is at Venice.

Here are the rain storm totals associated with that track

Again, that is Venice with a 25.11 inch rainfall total forecast

Contrast that with the American models which still prefer a scenario for a wider spread Windfield extending to the Greater Tampa/St Pete area.

Here is the track from the NAM 3km high-resolution model

Here are the peak wind gusts associated with that track

This is a scary scenario with peak wind gusts of 120 to 125 mph from Venice to St Pete with 130-135 mph gusts from Anna Maria to St Pete Beach.

Here is the rainfall associated with that track

That 30.87 inch total is at St Pete/Clearwater Airport south of the Causeway off of the Bayside Bridge.

Historically, the European model has been much more accurate in storm track and precipitation, especially with Hurricanes. I will be posting an early update on Wednesday morning.

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