9/28/22 Wednesday 5 am MDT

The European model continues to be the best and most reliable model when it comes to Hurricane tracking and forecasting. The other weather models are always trying to play catch up with it. The track for the most devastating weather is just south of Venice to Bradenton extending northeast all of the way to the Plant City/Lakeland area. Unfortunately, a number of people who thought they were evacuating to a safer area inland have put themselves in a worse situation in some of the inland areas.

There are still discrepancies between the wind spread and precipitation amounts between the European and the higher resolution models. The higher resolution models still show higher precipitation totals extending further north into Tampa Bay. I do not expect any changes in the track of the storm.

Here are the peak wind gusts and precipitation forecasts depicted by the European model.

Wind

Detailed View

Rain

Detailed View

Here are peak wind gusts and rain forecasts from the high-resolution NAM model

Detailed View

Rain

Detailed View

It is interesting to see that the high-resolution model extends the heavy rain totals all of the way to the Atlantic Coast with Orlando and Daytona in its path.

It is looking like this storm will briefly spend time over the Atlantic Coast and hit the Georgia-South Carolina Coastlines as a Tropical Storm.

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