10/7/22 Friday 5:15 am

More of the same for the next couple of days, probably longer. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms have been the pattern much of the week. Yesterday’s showers were much more isolated than Wednesday’s. Today and tomorrow we may see a slight uptick in activity. I’ll take this over a bone-dry boring October every time.

The biggest change since my last update is that the models have lost all consensus in regards to mid-next week and next weekend. When I throw out the deterministic models and invite in the ensemble members of the Canadian, GFS, and European models, there is a better consensus. They basically show more of what we have been experiencing lately, with perhaps a brief intrusion of some cooler air by mid-week.

The Euro extended model came out last night and it now shows a positive precipitation anomaly (above average precipitation) from now through the end of November. I will post a follow-up on that on Tuesday’s Extended Outlook next week.

I am still monitoring the models for freezing temps in the lower elevations. I assume everyone in the mid-elevation areas knows that freezing temps could occur at any time at this point. For the lower elevations, I expect freezing temps within the next 10 days or so, I will be more specific in my timing as we get closer.

My next update will be Sunday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!