10/20/22 Thursday 1:15 pm

It is more common than not for models to show different storm tracks in the days leading up to the arrival of the storm. Timing also starts to slow down. I have not seen big changes in the arrival time of the storm, but there was a noticeable difference from last night’s to this morning’s model runs. The Euro, Canadian, and GFS are all tracking precipitation further south. By no means a miss, just a different spread of the precipitation. As I said yesterday these could be anomalous runs and I will wait to make any changes in my thinking for at least 24 hours.

I had a strange request for the Japanese model forecast (JMA). It is not a model I use very often for precipitation. I use it more for tracking high-pressure ridges and low-pressure systems. But I will add it to the lineup.

GFS liquid

GFS snow

NOAA WPC liquid

German liquid

Japanese model JMA liquid

European liquid

European snow

Canadian liquid

Canadian snow

Unless we get an early Winter Storm Watch issuance later today, my next update will be Friday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!