Thursday Morning Update

10/20/22 Thursday 6:45 am
Overnight the Euro model bounced back as I hoped it would with its forecast totals for the lower elevations. The Canadian is starting to trend lower with its forecast totals but is still the most aggressive model. The GFS is starting to funnel slightly more precipitation to the lower elevations. Overall, I like what I see. No word on any Watches or Warnings yet for the higher elevations, but they should be on the way before tomorrow afternoon.
Here are the latest model runs.
GFS liquid
GFS snow
I think the miss on the GFS is with the warmth. This model is implying some high-altitude rain or low snow-to-liquid ratios (SLR). I do not expect that will be the case.
NOAA NBM (National Blend Of Models)
Euro liquid
Euro snow
German liquid
Canadian liquid
Canadian snow
There are a couple more pleasant days left before the pattern change. Expect winds to pick up Friday afternoon and throughout the day on Saturday. Saturday will be the last warm day for the foreseeable future. The storm will start to move in very late Saturday to early Sunday morning. By Monday high temperatures will struggle to get out of the 40s in the lower elevations, with 20s and 30s for the mountains and mid-elevation areas. The next storm could arrive on Thursday.
I will do an afternoon model update later today. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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