Tuesday Morning Update–Extended Outlook

10/25/22 Tuesday 7:45 am

I have five gift cards totaling $250 to add to the prize list. Chances are that additional prizes are going to be added this week, so I am going to hold off until the weekend to update the prize list. If you have not had a chance to check it out click here: 2022 Contest The Largest Ever–Updated 10/21/22

Well, the cold showed up. Temps are sitting in the teens to around 20 degrees throughout the forecast area as of 6 am. There is another system that is going to clip the northern portions of the forecast Wednesday afternoon and Thursday, I will talk more about that on Wednesday morning.

Extended Outlook

If you are new to my Extended Outlook, I use the “Euro Weeklies” model which comes out late on Mondays and Thursdays. I use the late Monday version and post it on Tuesday mornings. I show the forecasted liquid precipitation anomalies for 32 and 46-day periods. In the winter I show the actual snow forecasts for those time periods. I used this model in the spring and summer to forecast the above-average monsoon season we enjoyed.

Here is the liquid precipitation forecast anomaly through November 24th.

This sh0ws an average amount of precipitation for the southern, central, and western portions of the forecast area. It shows slightly below-average precipitation in the eastern portions of the forecast area and slightly above-average precipitation for the northern portions of the forecast area.

Here is the liquid precipitation forecast through December 8th.

This shows well above-average precipitation across the entire forecast area. This means that the period from November 24th through December 8 will be VERY wet. That is a very good time period to have above-average precipitation in SW Colorado.

Here are the temperature anomalies for the same time periods.

Through November 24th

Through December 8th

These show well below average temperatures through November 24th, with slightly below average temperatures between November 24 and December 8th.

Next is the snowfall forecast for all of our regional airport locations in Southwest Colorado. The graph on the bottom of the images shows the average output of 50+ model members.

TEX-Telluride