11/2/22 Wednesday 7 am
Numerous Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued across the western slope. Here are the ones pertaining to our forecast area.
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
446 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022
COZ019-022145-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0008.221103T0000Z-221104T0600Z/
Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Silverton, Rico, and Hesperus (Mayday)
446 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY NIGHT ABOVE 8000 FEET…
* WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 20
inches mainly above 8500 feet. Locally higher accumulations also
possible above timberline. Winds will gusts 45 to 60 mph above
10000 feet.
* WHERE…Southwest San Juan Mountains.
* WHEN…From 6 PM Wednesday to midnight MDT Thursday night.
* IMPACTS…Travel will be very difficult at times with blowing
snow significantly reducing visibility.
___________________________________________________
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
446 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022
COZ018-022145-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0016.221103T0600Z-221104T1200Z/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Ouray, and Lake City
446 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MDT FRIDAY ABOVE 8000 FEET…
* WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches
with locally higher amounts. Winds gusting 40 to 55 mph above
10000 feet.
* WHERE…Northwest San Juan Mountains.
* WHEN…From midnight Wednesday night to 6 AM MDT Friday.
* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy-blowing
snow could significantly reduce visibility.
______________________________________________________
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
358 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022
COZ068-021800-
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0014.221103T0000Z-221104T0600Z/
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-Wolf Creek
358 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY NIGHT…
* WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 30 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.
* WHERE…Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet.
* WHEN…From 6 PM this evening to midnight MDT Thursday night.
* IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.
The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening
commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
_________________________________________________________
The models have done no favors for forecasters overnight. The GFS, Canadian, German, NDFD, NBM, and WPC models all show very high storm totals in the higher elevations, especially around Wolf Creek. However, the Euro is showing a lot of restraint with Wolf Creek.
European
Versus all of the others
GFS
Canadian–likely overdone below 8,500 feet
German
NOAA’s blended models are all in on very heavy snow for Wolf Creek. All are showing 30-36 inches of snow at pass level.
NOAA NBM
NOAA NDFD
NOAA WPC
Obviously, I have a lot to digest this morning and I need to get to it. I will do another brief model update around 1 pm followed by a storm forecast before 5 pm.
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