11/1/22 Tuesday 11 am

This extended model has been very successful this year, it helped me greatly with the monsoon forecast earlier this year. It continues to advertise below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation through mid-December, which is great news!

It is also important to note that this model has a warm and dry bias to it. It will likely verify colder and wetter throughout our forecast area than what it shows here.

Here are below-average temperature anomalies. The numbers indicate how many degrees below average the overall temperatures are forecast to be.

This is now through November 30th

                                             

Through December 15th

                                               

Here are the precipitation anomalies. This shows the amount of liquid precipitation in inches above average for the periods.

Through November 30th

                                 

Through December 15th

                                       

According to this latest run, the first half of December will be very wet.

Here is the snowfall forecast through December 15th.

Next is the snowfall forecast for all of our regional airport locations in Southwest Colorado. The graph at the bottom of the images shows the average output of 50+ model members. The forecast is in the light blue bar graph bottom labeled “mean”

Telluride (TEX)

In this case, the snowfall forecast is for 38 inches at Telluride airport by December 15th.

Pagosa (Stevens field)

Durango (DRO)

Montrose (MTJ)

Cortez (CEZ)