Wednesday Morning Model Update

11/30/22 Wednesday 7:45 am

The models reached a better consensus regarding the timing of the Friday storm. It now looks like snow will start on Friday in the early morning hours.  The models are still showing meager precipitation totals despite the jet streak being right over us. Because of this, I have very low confidence in the totals I am seeing from the models and I will be doing an afternoon model update today around noon.

Here are the current liquid precipitation forecasts.

European Model

GFS Model

Canadian Model

German Model

Earlier I mentioned the Jet Streak being over the forecast area. The Jet Streak is where the strongest winds of the upper-level jet occur. Usually, this enhances lift in this case bringing strong southwest-to-northeast flow over our area. This wind direction usually enhances snowfall over the southern and eastern San Juans.

Here is the upper-level jet forecast put into motion beginning Thursday night at 8 pm through Saturday morning.

If this ULJ (upper-level jet) forecast verifies very windy conditions will affect travel over the passes on Friday regardless of how much or little snow falls.

If I was going to make a snow forecast from these particular model runs I would say this will be a 2-4 inch event for the resorts and passes. I do see the higher totals from the Canadian and German models, but at this point, I don’t have a lot of faith in any of the model runs.

I will post again around noon today. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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