12/1/22 Thursday 5:30 am

Happy Meteorological Winter!

COZ018-019-012300-
/O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0011.221202T1300Z-221203T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0022.221202T1300Z-221203T0000Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS (MAYDAY)
258 AM MST THU DEC 1 2022

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY…

* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 MPH.

* WHERE…NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS…PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE TREE DAMAGE.

_______________________________________________________

COZ068-011900-
/O.UPG.KPUB.WS.A.0011.221202T1200Z-221203T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.WW.Y.0032.221202T1200Z-221203T0000Z/
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
349 AM MST THU DEC 1 2022

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY…

* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 70 MPH.

* WHERE…EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.

* WHEN…FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS…PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE. VERY STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING. 

________________________________________________________

As long as I have been doing this a Winter Weather Advisory in the mountains (at or above 8,500 feet) meant 6 to 12 inches of snow. Now, apparently, it means every time it snows. Winter Storm Warnings are supposed to be issued in the mountains when over 12 inches of snow is expected. In the lower elevations, Winter Weather Advisories are usually issued for 3 to 6 inches of snow, and Winter Storm Warnings are issued when over 6 inches of snow is expected.

On one side I understand that other factors like the wind can affect travel, it is winter now, and that happens. On the other side, by always jumping up to a Winter Weather Advisory, I fear it desensitizes people to the true effects of a Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm Warning.

The other thing that happens in Ski towns is that people see the Winter Weather Advisory and they get excited about a certain amount of snow coming. Well, let’s take a look at the Euro…

Total Liquid

I rarely paste the snow maps but it is early so let’s take a look.

The Euro could be completely wrong. There are other models that have higher precipitation totals.

Canadian liquid

Canadian snow

I do agree the potential for strong winds is very high with this system, and travel could be hazardous early tomorrow morning across the passes and other areas mainly above 7,400 feet. That being said, unless something changes dramatically I do not feel this is going to be a big snow producer. I hope I am wrong.

My next update will be this afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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