Tuesday Morning Update–The Watches Were Upgraded To Warnings

On By durangoweatherguy 
COZ021>023-272115-  
/O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0014.221228T0600Z-221229T1200Z/  
/O.EXB.KGJT.WS.W.0013.221228T0300Z-221229T1200Z/  
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-  
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO, BAYFIELD,   
IGNACIO, AND PAGOSA SPRINGS  
159 AM MST TUE DEC 27 2022  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM  
MST THURSDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500 FEET. TOTAL SNOW  
  ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER  
  AMOUNTS.  
  
* WHERE...FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER, ANIMAS RIVER BASIN   
  AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. THE HAZARDOUS   
  CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE.

Make sure you read my discussion regarding low-elevation snow amounts.

COZ019-272115-  
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0013.221228T0000Z-221229T1200Z/  
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS  
159 AM MST TUE DEC 27 2022  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS  
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO   
  20 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 FEET. WINDS   
  GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW   
  COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.

 

COZ012-018-272115-  
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0029.221228T0000Z-221229T1200Z/  
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CRESTED BUTTE, TAYLOR PARK, MARBLE,   
TELLURIDE, OURAY, AND LAKE CITY  
159 AM MST TUE DEC 27 2022  
  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS  
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY...  
  
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 16   
  INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35   
  MPH.  
  
* WHERE...WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST SAN JUAN   
  MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW   
  COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ON RIDGE   
  TOPS.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
352 AM MST TUE DEC 27 2022  
  
COZ068-271900-  
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0020.221228T0000Z-221229T1200Z/  
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-  
352 AM MST TUE DEC 27 2022  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS  
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2  
  FEET. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS. WINDS   
  GUSTING AS HIGH AS 70 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. PATCHY  
  BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. GUSTY WINDS  
  COULD BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD, AND WATER IN  
YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

 

Despite the Warning posted for Durango, Bayfield,  Mancos, and Ignacio I am very concerned that the snow will have a difficult time accumulating at the 6,500-foot level. There will likely be a big difference between Durango and the surrounding mid-elevation areas (Edgemont, Rafter J, Durango West 1&11, Forest Lakes, etc.)

That being said, if you are all about the beneficial moisture (liquid equivalent) then this storm should make you very happy. I will address all of that in my afternoon snow forecast.

Here are the latest model runs, these show total snow for the first storm ending Thursday morning. The totals are before melting and/or compaction. That is why I encourage people to measure frequently and clear the area after each measurement.

Keep in mind the lower resolution of the GFS and Canadian distort and overstate the low-elevation snow totals, especially in warm storms like this one–more on that in a minute.

Canadian–low resolution

GFS–medium-low resolution

European–medium resolution

 

NBM–high resolution

Notice how the low-resolution Canadian model outputs 13.2 inches of snow in Cortez, but the high-resolution NBM model shows 1 inch of snow in Cortez. For lower elevations, higher-resolution models are usually more accurate.

My next update will be Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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