1/1/23 Sunday 7:20 am

Warm pacific based high-moisture storms are at best difficult to forecast. Oftentimes, they are more like a coin toss, a 50/50 bet. There appears to be some forecaster remorse going on at the different National Weather Service offices this morning with what they would refer to as their “inherited” forecasts and highlight packages. This is evident in their change in wording in Winter Storm Warnings.

COZ019-012230-  
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0014.000000T0000Z-230103T0100Z/  
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS  
539 AM MST SUN JAN 1 2023  
   
..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20   
  INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS   
  35 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. AREAS OF  
  BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.

So we have gone from 1 to 2 feet with up to 3 feet possible, down to 10-20 inches.

  
COZ017-018-012230-  
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0014.000000T0000Z-230103T0100Z/  
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-  
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RIDGWAY, GLADE PARK, TELLURIDE, OURAY,   
AND LAKE CITY  
539 AM MST SUN JAN 1 2023  
   
..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 14   
  INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS   
  35 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE AND NORTHWEST   
  SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW   
  COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ON RIDGE   
  TOPS.

Here we have gone down from 10-20 inches with 30 inches possible, to 7-14 inches

Pueblo NWS is never committal when it comes to Wolf Creek Pass, but they have now come down to 6 to 18 inches.

I understand the rationale but when I compare the most recent run of the NBM model (1 hour old)

Current

With the run from 24 hours ago, I don’t see a huge change other than the lower elevations.

24 hours ago

Actually, the current run is showing higher totals at Wolf Creek than 24 hours ago.

So I am scratching my head about how to handle this forecast. As much as I really like to hone in on the specifics I may not be able to do that in the lower and middle elevations. Or, I just go for it, and if I am wrong so be it.

I am going to try to have something out before 1 pm. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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