Storm #2–Snow Forecasts

On By durangoweatherguy

1/16/23 Monday 4 pm

Updated Warnings and Advisories 

Some of the totals have increased in the latest batch from the NWS…

  
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
116 PM MST MON JAN 16 2023  
  
COZ019-180830-  
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0002.230116T2100Z-230118T1800Z/  
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS  
116 PM MST MON JAN 16 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST  
WEDNESDAY...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO   
  26 INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. PATCHY   
  BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE COLD   
  WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 BELOW ZERO COULD RESULT IN   
  HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

COZ068-170445-  
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0002.230117T0000Z-230118T0900Z/  
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET- WOLF CREEK PASS 
132 PM MST MON JAN 16 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS  
AFTERNOON TO 2 AM MST WEDNESDAY...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2   
  FEET. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM MST WEDNESDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. PATCHY   
  BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD, AND WATER IN  
YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.   
  
COZ022-023-180000-  
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0002.230117T0000Z-230118T0000Z/  
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO,   
AND PAGOSA SPRINGS  
116 PM MST MON JAN 16 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS  
AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO   
  12 INCHES.  
  
* WHERE...ANIMAS RIVER BASIN AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. THE HAZARDOUS   
  CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE.
COZ003-013-017-018-UTZ025-180830-  
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0004.230116T2100Z-230118T1800Z/  
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-FLAT TOPS-  
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-  
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RIO BLANCO, BUFORD, TRAPPERS LAKE,   
RIDGWAY, GLADE PARK, TELLURIDE, OURAY, AND LAKE CITY  
116 PM MST MON JAN 16 2023  
  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST  
WEDNESDAY...  
  
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 13   
  INCHES.  
  
* WHERE...IN COLORADO, ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS, FLAT TOPS,   
  UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE AND NORTHWEST SAN JUAN   
  MOUNTAINS. IN UTAH, TAVAPUTS PLATEAU.  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT.
  
COZ021-180000-  
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0002.230117T0000Z-230118T0000Z/  
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, AND MANCOS  
116 PM MST MON JAN 16 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS  
AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED ABOVE 6000 FEET. TOTAL SNOW   
  ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 10 INCHES.  
  
* WHERE...FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. THE HAZARDOUS   
  CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE.

Interesting totals…

Speaking of totals, precipitation totals for storm #2 have been increasing today. That is usually good news. I am not going to sweat the small stuff, I am going all in on storm #2. I am going to assume the models are tracking this correctly and that the storm will do what the models think. If I am wrong, so be it. I am not sick of snow, but I am wiped out from the cleanup. I have an 8:30 am follow-up appointment tomorrow, so I assume we will get a ton of snow overnight and I will have to clear the driveway early tomorrow, that is usually how these things work for me.

As I mentioned snow has been off and on most of the day. Snow will be on the increase later this afternoon and evening.

The main low has made its way into Nevada and the front is approaching Vegas. There is a shortwave trough that has moved into Utah ahead of the front which will decrease the stability in the atmosphere (even more) as it approaches.

As I said I am going all in on the totals, I wouldn’t mind terribly if I was too high on some of them (my house). Unlike the Winter Storm Warnings, I think it will snow through most of the day on Wednesday my totals reflect that.

Aztec:  1 to 3 inches

Cortez and Ouray, Marvel:  4 to 6 inches

Telluride, Mancos. Ignacio:  8 to 12 inches

Durango, Bayfield, Hermosa, Deer Valley:  10 to 14 inches

Mid-elevation areas up to  7,500 feet: 14 to 18 inches

Mid-elevation areas up to 8,000 feet:  15 to 20 inches

Purgatory, Mayday, Rico: 16 to 20 inches

Wolf Creek:  18 to 24 inches

BTW, there is a very good chance of a smaller storm arriving late Thursday or early Friday, stay tuned for more on that…

I will probably check in first thing tomorrow before my appointment. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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