Very Early Monday Update

1/23/23 Monday 2:45 am

I want to thank everyone for the huge outpouring of support out there. I get accused of sharing too much personal information at times. The reason I do this is that I have many surrogate “mothers” that follow me and have for years. If I do not explain why I am not posting they get concerned. I feel a lot better than I did before my dental procedure yesterday. I want to thank Dr. Nathan Robison for sacrificing valuable personal time away from his family yesterday afternoon to attend to my emergency.

I tried to periodically follow the models yesterday in an attempt to keep tabs on the storm. The trend has shown the storm diving south into Central Arizona and Southern New Mexico. The most recent model runs show that trend continuing so I would not be at all surprised if the models are lagging the progress of the storm and overproducing the amount of snow that will fall.

With that being said, the models still are not showing very much snow in the lower and mid-elevations but they are definitely targeting the Purgatory to Coal Bank area for the heaviest snow. It is already snowing at Purgatory, Wolf Creek, and Telluride @ ( 2 am).

The cold air and cold core of the storm will produce high ratio powder so I would equally not at all be surprised with the amounts that are predicted in the latest Winter Weather Advisory:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
249 AM MST Mon Jan 23 2023

COZ019-240000-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230124T0000Z/
Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Silverton, Rico, and Hesperus
249 AM MST Mon Jan 23 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow. Accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with locally higher
  amounts.

* WHERE...Southwest San Juan Mountains.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM MST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

 

I still have a nagging concern that more snow may fall across the southern portions of the forecast area. As has been the case for the last several weeks, this is not reflected in the models, we’ll see. If that is the case at least it will be “easy to handle” powder.

I can definitely say I will be able to update again on Wednesday morning, perhaps Tuesday afternoon. There may be some light snow showers Wednesday, especially in the northern portions of the forecast area. Other than that, I expect mostly cold and dry conditions for the next week or so before the pattern flips again as we begin February.

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