1/27/23 Friday 8:45 am
I don’t have a lot of news to share. The Northern and Central Mountains are going to get from 8 inches to over 3 feet of snow and it is going to be boring here. That is good news for some, but most of us are not completely done with winter yet. I have appreciated the break, with everything I have going on, but I will be ready when winter returns.
At the moment, it looks like a storm will try to move through next week. The latest models are not showing big totals. I do think a system will try to come through, but as I have said patterns repeat themselves so don’t be surprised if it is more impactful in Arizona and New Mexico than here.
I am going to hold off from taking the models at their word for a couple of more days. They are not only struggling in the short term, but the extended models are also in a state of flux.
This is more than likely due to the fact that La Nina is quickly decaying and we expect to reach neutral ENSO status within the next 60 days. I have said before that La Nina/El Nino are more contributing factors to our winters than dominant factors. Weak La Ninas, Enso neutral, and weak El Ninos have historically produced our snowiest winters.
As the Nino regions were warming up, we saw a dramatic increase in our storms from late December through January. Enso does not usually flip and stay flipped immediately, sometimes it fights back. I think La Nina is trying to fight back with an upwelling of cooler water and that temporarily has ended our stormy pattern. Now the models are struggling trying to work through multiple solutions. It is my hope that a further decaying La Nina will change the atmosphere back to a stormy pattern that will last well into the spring and summer. Followed back a weak El Nino for next winter. We will see!
More than likely, I will post again on Sunday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!
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