2/18/23 Saturday 8:30 am
All of the model runs have been promising a big storm, and I feel pretty confident it will happen. The only change in the latest set of model runs is a slight difference in the timing of the first flakes. The GFS shows the system starting late Tuesday night, and the Euro and Canadian are about 6 hours later. Either way, they are showing a very powerful system with the exit region of the jet ending up right over the San Juans like a firehose. I expect closures no later than Thursday morning. I still am not able to answer questions about Friday and/or weekend travel. I should have a better handle on that in 24 to 48 hours.
In the meantime, a weak wave may develop snow over the northern portions of the forecast area late Sunday. Accumulations will range from a trace to 3 inches with the higher elevations of San Juan County being favored for the heaviest snow. Not a big deal…
At this point, I still feel 2-4 feet will be possible across the higher elevations, 1-2 feet for mid-elevations, and 5-12 inches will be possible in the lower elevation areas.
Here are the latest model runs showing the total liquid precipitation for this storm cycle. I still expect leftovers lingering throughout the day on Friday, but nothing like Wednesday-Thursday.
I would not totally discount the Canadian’s high elevation totals, it has had several wins this season!
My next update will be on Sunday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!
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