Friday Update–Looking At Next Week’s Storm

2/17/23 Friday 7:20 am

With several days before the first flakes start falling, we are at the point where I look for similarities among the models to help better determine the timing track and intensity of the next storm.

At this point, it looks like a classic SW flow setup. The remnants of an Atmospheric River combine with a deep west coast trough resulting in heavy mountain snow which will likely result in totals of 2+ feet. Mid-elevation areas should receive 1-2 feet and lower elevations may see a mixed bag at or below 6,500 feet, turning to all snow with 6 to 12 inches of accumulations. The heaviest snow should fall early Wednesday through Thursday morning.

I am probably being too specific for 5 days away, but that is what I see now. What I am not sure about is what happens later on Thursday through Saturday morning. The GFS is showing its typical bias by moving the storm out of the area quickly on Thursday. The Euro takes its time and shows some leftovers lingering until Saturday morning. The Canadian model is closer to the Euro. It is too early to speculate which is correct, although in the past the Euro is usually a little better than the GFS in these situations.

Lastly, the models completely diverge after Saturday (2/25). The GFS brings in another big storm by Monday 2/27, and the Euro and Canadian show ridging.

So for now, I will concentrate on the storm coming in early next Wednesday, which could bring some leftovers through Saturday morning.

Here are the latest model runs showing the total liquid precipitation forecasts for Tuesday through Saturday period.

GFS