Tuesday Morning-Extended Outlook

3/28/23 Tuesday 7:30 am

Yet another cold night with low to mid-teens in the lower elevations. Silverton, depending on where you look is between -17 and -20 this morning! Most other mountain locations are 0 to 4 degrees.

Speaking of temperatures, they will moderate a bit today, with highs ranging from 10 to 15 degrees below average. Things will really heat up tomorrow with highs ranging from 5 to 10 degrees below average for this time of year, woohoo!

Models are still a bit apart on what to expect for the Thursday-Friday storm this week. They are leaning towards advisory-level (6-12 inches) snow in the higher elevations. With lesser amounts in the mid-elevations and a messy mix in the lower elevations. I will talk more about that storm on Wednesday.

Extended Outlook

For the most part, this trend of below-average temperatures will continue for the foreseeable future.

Long-term patterns are difficult to break out of. I say this when we go through dry periods, and I say this when we have we go through wet periods. This situation will be no different and I believe this prolonged period of cold wet weather will impact our weather through the summer. It is too early for me to put forth any data-driven forecast or refer to any modeling regarding the monsoon season but my instincts tell me an above-average monsoon season is on the way.

Extended temperature forecast.

Here are the forecast anomalies for temperatures. These numbers represent the departures from the average over the period.

European extended model temperature anomalies now through 4/27/23

European extended model temperature anomalies now through May 11th.

I am not going to post a week-by-week breakdown, but the moderation starts in about a month. I looked at two other extended models and they both show below-average temperatures through April.

Extended Temperature Forecast

March, April, May, and June are historically our driest months of the year. June is usually always our driest month, followed by May. March and April have battled since records have been kept for 3rd or 4th driest month of the year. So that is something to keep in mind when looking at this 4 to 6-week precipitation forecast. When you are dealing with some of the driest months of the year the margin for error is far greater.

European extended model precipitation forecast anomalies now through April 27th.

Keep in mind, that this model tends to bias warm and dry in its forecasts. The extended American and Canadian models are only 35 and 32-day models. As I said they agree on the below-average temperatures. But the American GFS and CFS models both show above-average precipitation over the next month. As I said the margin for error is huge during the driest months.

My next update will be on Wednesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate 

If you prefer to donate with Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

Click here to submit a weather report or question

Leave a Reply