6/1/23 Thursday 7 am
We will get a better look at the extended models in tomorrow’s update, but from what I am seeing in the daily model runs, June is going to at least start off with above-average precipitation and below-average temperatures.
Scattered showers will redevelop the next few days, and snow will fall, mostly at or above 12,000 feet. A couple to a few inches could possibly accumulate. Showers were pretty spotty yesterday but could become more widespread today and tomorrow. The northern and central portions of the forecast area will be favored for precipitation. Generally, areas at or north of Durango’s latitude will see the best chance of meaningful precipitation.
A couple of days ago I made a reference to a “Junesoon” developing, similar to what happened in May which I referred to as the “Maysoon”. During the actual monsoon season, one of the parameters I reference is PWAT or precipitable water value. This is a measure of how saturated the air is. It forecasts the amount of precipitation available to fall over a given area. I prefer to look at the anomaly versus the actual number. It displays the percentage above average for this time of year.
Here are the next 10 days, in six-hour increments.
According to this forecast, the PWAT will range from 150%-250% of normal most of the time for the first 10 days of June.
The models always struggle this time of year with where the storms will develop. I would love to hear from people to know when it starts raining and where you are. That helps me know which models are most accurate with their forecasts.
My next update will be Friday morning.
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Rain just started here I am 6 miles south of Bayfield next to the H-D MTS
1538 C R 523