Thursday Update: A Nice Glimpse Of What Is To Come

7/27/23 Thursday 7 am

Extended patterns are difficult to break out of. We know this during wet summers, dry summers, and snowy winters. Yet, we always forget. Remember this from 39 days ago?

We have short-term weather memories and forget how cold it was this spring and during the beginning of the summer. The truth is the heat has only been in place for about 2 1/2 weeks. When you look at the average temperatures over the last 45 days it has been average to below average in most of the US. This data is from NOAA’s CDAS (the climate data assimilation system). It shows the average temperatures over the last 45 days.

This may surprise a few people out there. My point is, patterns don’t last forever, and this one is starting to show that. A warning shot of monsoonal moisture drifted over the area last night as the high pressure moved slightly east. It was nice to wake up to the wet pavement and cloudy skies and a little humidity this morning.

For today, the models show a chance of showers redeveloping in afternoon convection.

On Friday, drier air is supposed to temporarily move back over the area. Despite this, isolated afternoon showers will still be a possibility. By late Saturday/early Sunday a more generous monsoonal tap is forecasted to be over the area. This could lead to some heavier rains for a few days throughout the forecast area. I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself. Pattern changes are tricky and difficult for the models to handle well, often until they are locked in place. Many times it happens sooner than they initially expect.

Fingers crossed…

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