Friday Update: Transitioning Back To A Dry Weekend

9/15/23 Friday 8:15 am

I noticed some problems with the models as the afternoon progressed yesterday. I have low confidence with what I am seeing in the model runs this morning. With that being said, the models do show rain and thunderstorms popping again today, with pockets of heavy rain occurring. Where that actually sets up is more of a coin flip, but the higher elevations should be favored. Snow could mix in again at or above 12,000 feet.

The European model has removed any chance of showers for the weekend, but the GFS and Canadian models still show very slight chances of late-day showers in the higher elevations. I am not a fan of models abruptly phasing out all chances of precipitation after such a wet pattern, so I would not trust a completely dry forecast in the higher elevations (above 8,500 feet) for Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

I have more questions than answers for the weather next week. Hopefully, I will get some clarity over the weekend.

My next post will be on Sunday.

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